Oil is moving again but attacks on tankers are increasing. Washington is preparing for another round of strikes while publicly ruling them out. Elsewhere, Ukraine remains locked in a costly stalemate, domestic grievances are becoming electoral questions and diplomatic relationships are being tested.
A Pause Is Not A Settlement
For several weeks, the relative absence of major American attacks on Iran has offered some respite from the most intense phase of the war. Oil exports from the Middle East have recovered towards pre-war levels and President Donald Trump says Washington is holding productive discussions with Tehran.
Yet the events of this week offer little reassurance that the conflict is approaching a settlement.
Iranian attacks on commercial shipping have increased sharply and extended beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is fighting an increasingly difficult campaign against the Houthis, who continue to strike targets inside the kingdom. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has prepared options for renewed operations against Iran, even as Trump insists there will be no further attacks before the November midterm elections.
The central question is whether the current hiatus is creating space for diplomacy, or simply postponing another round of fighting.
The recovery in Middle East oil exports looks increasingly precarious. Regional crude shipments reached around pre-war levels but attacks on tankers around Hormuz rose to their highest weekly frequency since the war began. By Thursday, vessels had also been struck near Qatar and Fujairah, suggesting the threat to commercial shipping was extending beyond the strait itself.
Saudi Arabia faces a parallel problem. Its Yemeni allies reported recovering territory around Bab al-Mandab but the Houthis continued fighting elsewhere and launched attacks on Saudi airports that killed three civilians. Riyadh has activated its recently signed defence agreement with Pakistan and Turkiye, bringing new partners into an already difficult campaign.
Washington’s position is equally unsettled. The Pentagon has prepared options for another major operation against Iran, while Trump has thus far rejected several proposals and promised no new attacks before the midterms. Talks continue but the nuclear dispute remains unresolved.
Oil is flowing, for now. Whether that can continue amid widening attacks is far less certain.
Ukraine’s battlefield position has become more complicated than the steady Russian advance sometimes suggested by territorial maps and by the public statements of the Russian leadership. Kyiv’s Operation Vivaldi has recovered ground in northern Donbas and disrupted Russian efforts to encircle Ukrainian positions. Russian territorial gains have slowed considerably, while Ukraine claims its long-range attacks have disabled more than half of Russia’s oil-refining capacity, a figure that remains unverified.
None of this has stopped Russia inflicting severe damage. Missile and drone attacks have struck cities across Ukraine, while a glide bomb attack beside public buses in Kramatorsk killed at least 30 people. Moscow continues its campaign against Ukraine’s defensive positions in Donbas, although a major breakthrough is considered unlikely this year.
There is also a direct connection to the Middle East. Ukraine continues to face shortages of American Patriot interceptor missiles as the Iran war consumes air-defence resources.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the conflict as a strategic stalemate.
This week’s developments illustrate what that means: neither side seems able to secure a decisive advantage but the mutual destruction just continues.
Spain’s housing crisis moved directly into electoral politics. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a snap election after his minority government failed to secure parliamentary support for emergency housing measures. Nationwide protests, intensified by the eviction and subsequent death of 87-year-old María del Carmen Abascal subsequently prompted the government to revive a package of 21 measures and sparked nationwide protests.
France faces a different confrontation. Student protests over deteriorating school conditions have continued for three weeks, accompanied by allegations of excessive police force. The government suspended the use of stun grenades after a 15-year-old lost his hand during a demonstration. A presidential election is six months away.
In Israel, the approaching election has reopened questions about responsibility for the failures surrounding the October 7 attacks. Benjamin Netanyahu’s opponents are promising an independent inquiry, while he continues to defend his wartime leadership.
These are distinct political disputes, not evidence of a single electoral trend. Their common feature is that unresolved grievances are becoming questions voters will be asked to judge.
Britain and Israel came close to a serious diplomatic confrontation over London’s restrictions on trade linked to Israeli settlements. Israel threatened to close Britain’s historic consulate in East Jerusalem, while London considered retaliatory expulsions.
A last-minute agreement avoided the immediate confrontation, but at a cost. Britain retains a smaller diplomatic mission serving Palestinians, while the consulate’s previous status has ended. London has not withdrawn its sanctions.
Relations between South Korea and Ukraine have also deteriorated. Seoul is recalling its ambassador after Kyiv publicly disclosed the transfer of two captured North Korean soldiers to South Korea. The governments disagree over whether the transfer was supposed to remain confidential, although both say discussions will continue.
The European Union faces a more institutional version of the problem. Brussels wants fewer national vetoes and potentially fewer commissioners to accommodate enlargement, but member states remain resistant.
None of these disputes has produced a complete rupture. They do, however, demonstrate how difficult it can be to preserve cooperation when governments disagree over important interests.
The week’s most consequential developments concern the difference between keeping a difficult situation manageable and finding a way to resolve it.
In the Middle East, recovering oil exports have not brought greater security. In Ukraine, slowing Russian advances have not reduced the human cost of the war. European governments are responding to domestic grievances without yet settling the disputes behind them, while diplomatic partners are finding compromises that leave substantial disagreements intact.
The Iran war presents the clearest immediate test. Trump has deferred another major military operation, but the attacks on shipping are intensifying and the prospects for a negotiated settlement remain uncertain.
A hiatus can last longer than expected. It can also end abruptly.